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Wednesday
Aug022017

Jacinda Takes Control

One is tempted of course to resort to trotting out the clichés that have assailed our ears over the last twenty four hours – ‘all bets are off’, and ‘game changer’ being but two.

I will to wait and see after the seventy two hours sought by Jacinda to “get her thoughts together.” That is fair enough, and I for one certainly look forward to her rolling out some bold new ideas that can be translated into policies, and light a fire under the complacent, ‘steady as she goes,’ and time-worn economic and environmental policies to which we have been subjected for what seems forever.

James Shaw’s claim that National’s vote is “softening” is credible, even if the polls indicate otherwise, and the absence of any National spokespeople – specifically Joyce or English from the airwaves this morning was very telling of the concern that is likely being felt right at this moment regarding the prospect, even at this late stage for disaffected National voters to desert, and follow their inclination towards this shiny new object with such promise    

And Jacinda, for all her youth and inexperience put on a display at the podium yesterday unlike any we have seen for many a long year. Someone pointed out that Bob Hawke came through for Labour in Oz inside one month from their poll, and blasted the Liberal/Country Coalition out of the water. It really does boil down to personalities, and Jacinda appears to have the ‘X’ factor long sought by Labour. The one frightening sight on the podium was the unpleasant presence of Carmel Sepaloni in virtually every photo and news video standing behind Jacinda. I trust that does not represent her standing in the new structure - this afternoon's question-time should be interesting to watch.

English versus Little was a ‘no-contest’ to be brutally honest, but English v. Adern is an entirely different kettle of fish, and her response to ‘Blokey’ Mark Richardson’s ‘baby-question’ on AM Show was a classic ‘put-down’ of that particular dinosaur. I don’t give a stuff about her maternity plans - I think that we have gone past the time when such questions should be even hinted at in terms of determining a person’s appropriateness for a position.

If Ms Adern is currently planning marriage as I understand it, and babies generally result from such unions in the normal course, but there are ways of postponing such happy events given the will, and I am sure that this 37 year-old will have taken all that into account when making her decision to accept nomination, along with resolving to postpone her single malt experiences with Winston in the event of pregnancy.

Actually, come to think of it, having a pregnant PM would probably be a novel occurrence, and set a great example in the workplace. It makes the selection of the Deputy in post-election negotiations critically important - it would certainly put Kelvin Davis on his mettle, and let us see what he is made of. I say selection of deputy, because I don’t think we are quite ready for Metiria, or James.  

All of this is conjecture of course, and the Jacinda effect may be entirely a figment of my imagination (and many others, I might say!). Winston remains the ‘ace in the hole’ of course – it is just that if Jacinda can bring about a 10% swing, from whatever source, it places her in a far stronger position squeezing the Greens to the point where Winston may be tempted to join the new ‘set-up.’ Not very likely I know, but by golly it makes the next five weeks a very interesting prospect.

And don’t under-estimate the ability of Gareth Morgan to reach the threshold – he is climbing in the polls, and given the sudden stirring of the mix, he could make it and throw his lot with Jacinda and the Greens to keep Winston at bay.  Suddenly Ohariu, and Epson become critically important for National, and not at all a ‘done-deal.’

 

 

 

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Reader Comments (1)

re the polls softening for National at the same stage before the last election National was around 50% and today are around 45.5% (poll of polls) This was before Jacinda became Leader. I agree that this election is suddenly much more interesting. If the Greens can hold support around 13% and Labour can get around 30% then we may be looking at Jacinda for PM ? Jeremy Corbyn wiped a 22% deficit to 1% in the same time left in this campaign. Labour only need to up their game by 5% or so. Right wing sexist Neanderthals like Mark Richardson have done the Left a huge favour -- 100's of women will now be showing solidarity with Jacinda and leaving National.

August 2, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterDenis Tegg

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